Wind Turbines with Rainbow

http://www.blm.gov/wo/st/en/
prog/energy/wind_energy.html

Wind Power

Home
History
How it works
Physics
Exploitation
IPCC
Local Applications
Bibliography

 

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). These organizations recognized the potential problem of global climate change and established a panel to explore this problem from scientific research with a goal of distributing this information to the public.

"The role of the IPCC is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socioeconomic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC does not carry out research nor does it monitor climate related data or other relevant parameters. It bases its assessment mainly on peer reviewed and published scientific/technical literature. "

Quote from IPCC homepage : http://www.ipcc.ch/about/about.htm

The IPCC has made public the contribution from Working Group I towards the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC:

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis
Summary for Policymakers
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/docs/WG1AR4_SPM_Approved_05Feb.pdf

I have taken several (many) quotes from this document in attempt to show a few key highlights. I have purposely taken this as a lot of direct quotes in an attempt to not muck it up with paraphrasing. I highly encourage whoever is reading this to read the document in its entirety. It is well worth your while.


"Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increase markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years. The global increases in carbon dioxide concentrations are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land-use change, while those of methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture." Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis pg. 2

Chart taken from IPCC report

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis pg. 3

http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/docs/WG1AR4_SPM_Approved_05Feb.pdf

"Carbon dioxide is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. The global atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased from a pre-industrial value of about 280 ppm to 379 ppm in 2005. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide in 2005 exceeds by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years (180 to 300 ppm) as determined from ice cores. The annual carbon dioxide concentration growth-rate was larger during the last 10 years (1995-2005 average: 1.9 ppm per year), than it has been since the beginning of continuous direct atmospheric measurements (1960-2005 average:1.4 ppm per year) although there is year-to-year variability in growth rates." Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis pg. 2

"The primary source of the increased atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide since the pre-industrial period results from fossil fuel use, with land use change providing another significant but smaller contribution. Annual fossil carbon dioxide emissions increased from an average of 6.4 [6.0 to 6.8] GtC (23.5 [22.0 to 25.0] GtCO2) per year in the 1990s, to 7.2 [6.9 to 7.5] GtC (26.4 [25.3 to 27.5] GtCO2) per year in 2000-2005 (2004 and 2005 data are interim estimates). Carbon dioxide emissions associated with land-use change are estimated to be 1.6[0.5 to 2.7] GtC (5.9 [1.8 to 9.9] GtCO2) per year over the 1990s, although these estimate have a large uncertainty." Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis pg. 2

 

Chart taken from IPCC report

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis pg. 6

http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/docs/WG1AR4_SPM_Approved_05Feb.pdf

"The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling influences on climate has improved since
the Third Assessment Report (TAR), leading to very high confidence7 that the globally averaged net
effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to
+2.4] W m-2." Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis pg. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis pg. 5

"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in
global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global
average sea level." Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis pg. 5

"Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of
global surface temperature9 (since 1850). The updated 100-year linear trend (1906–2005) of 0.74 [0.56 to
0.92]°C is therefore larger than the corresponding trend for 1901-2000 given in the TAR of 0.6 [0.4 to 0.8]°C.
The linear warming trend over the last 50 years (0.13 [0.10 to 0.16]°C per decade) is nearly twice that for the
last 100 years. The total temperature increase from 1850 – 1899 to 2001 – 2005 is 0.76 [0.57 to 0.95]°C.
Urban heat island effects are real but local, and have a negligible influence (less than 0.006°C per decade over
land and zero over the oceans) on these values." Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis pg. 5

Phenomena and direction of trend Likelihood that trend occurred in late 20th century (typically post 1960) Likelihood of a human contribution to observed trend (b) Likelihood of future trends based on projections for 21st century using SRES
Warmer and fewer cold days and nights over most land areas Very likely (c) Likely (d) Virtually certain (d)
Warmer and more frequent hot days and nights over most land areas Very likely (e) Likely (nights) (d) Virtually certain (d)
Warm spells / heat waves. Frequency increases over most land areas Likely More likely than not (f) Very likely
Heavy precipitation events. Frequency (or proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls) increases over most areas Likely More likely than not (f) Very likely
Area affected by droughts increases Likely in many regions
since 1970s
More likely than not Likely
Intense tropical cyclone activity increases Likely in some regions
since 1970
More likely than not (f) Likely
Increased incidence of extreme high sea level (excludes tsunamis) (g) Likely More likely than not (f), (h) Likely (i)

Table notes:
(a) See Table 3.7 for further details regarding definitions.
(b) See Table TS-4, Box TS.3.4 and Table 9.4.
(c) Decreased frequency of cold days and nights (coldest 10%).
(d) Warming of the most extreme days and nights each year.
(e) Increased frequency of hot days and nights (hottest 10%).
(f) Magnitude of anthropogenic contributions not assessed. Attribution for these phenomena based on expert judgment rather
than formal attribution studies.
(g) Extreme high sea level depends on average sea level and on regional weather systems. It is defined here as the highest 1%
of hourly values of observed sea level at a station for a given reference period.
(h) Changes in observed extreme high sea level closely follow the changes in average sea level {5.5.2.6}. It is very likely that
anthropogenic activity contributed to a rise in average sea level. {9.5.2}
(i) In all scenarios, the projected global average sea level at 2100 is higher than in the reference period {10.6}. The effect of
changes in regional weather systems on sea level extremes has not been assessed.

Table taken from IPCC report

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis pg. 9


As you can see from the above, it is very important to find a clean, renewable source of energy. Wind power is becoming instrumental in helping us with the problem of climate change.

 

Kevin Taylor - Spring 2007

Contact: fskdt3@uaf.edu

Physics 212 Web Project

Dr. D. Newman

University of Alaska Faribanks